Hezbollah pager attack was an ‘audacious’ deterrence message to Iran, one expert says

A Canadian professor weighs in on what comes next.
paper exploding
Photo taken from a Beirut store's closed-circuit camera on Sept. 17, 2024, showing the moment before a shopper's shoulder bag exploded, presumably carrying a booby-trapped pager, widely believed to have been detonated by Israel's secret services. (CBC News/YouTube)

The fallout in the Middle East continues after last week’s covert cyber attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, when thousands of suspected operatives linked to the Iran-backed terror militia saw their army-issued pagers suddenly explode. Israel hasn’t confirmed or denied it was behind the sabotage of the booby-trapped devices, nor was their spy service taking credit for the following day’s second act, when scores of Hezbollah walkie-talkies caught fire. The explosions killed at least 37 people in Lebanon and parts of Syria, including a few children and one woman, but military analysts say the events have left thousands of Hezbollah members severely maimed and unable to fight.

Condemnation for the pager attacks has come from Canada, France, the United Nations and a former director for the CIA, who labelled the act terrorism. Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, said the attacks crossed the red line and vowed to retaliate. But how can he, with so many soldiers hospitalized and his surviving generals scrambling to find a safer way to communicate? Why did Israel set off its sleeper operation now? Was it a prelude to an escalation? And what will Iran—who funds Hezbollah—do next?

To answer these and other questions, we’ve turned to Alex Wilner, a professor at Carleton University’s Norman Patterson School of International Affairs, who is one of Canada’s top experts in deterrence by denial, strategic studies, terrorism and counterterrorism. Wilner joins this episode of The CJN Daily to explain what message Israel was really sending and what to expect next.

What we talked about

  • Read more about why supporting the exploding pagers operation with posts on his social media account cost this veteran Canadian diplomat his job at the University of Ottawa last week, in The CJN.
  • Hear how a Toronto-raised IDF soldier, Ben Brown, was seriously wounded by an explosion from a Hezbollah rocket near his army base, on The CJN Daily.
  • Why Hezbollah rockets have forced 60,000 Israelis to be displaced from northern Israel’ border with Lebanon since October. 7, on The CJN Daily.

Credits

Host and writer: Ellin Bessner (@ebessner)
Production team: Zachary Kauffman (producer), Michael Fraiman (executive producer)
Music: Dov Beck-Levine

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