With just a week left in the 2025 federal election, it remains unclear which way Jewish voters will lean. Will they give stock to the parties’ promises on the economy, housing and sovereignty? Or will they be single-issue voters and focus on security within their own community? And how will they decide which party’s stance is more aligned with their views on Israel and the ongoing conflict with Hamas?
Although Canadian Jews make up just one percent of the population, surprisingly, all the main federal party leaders have made promises about these very issues, including during both of last week’s nationally televised debates.
While many polls are predicting a Liberal majority government, the members of The CJN Daily‘s political panel are not unanimous in their prognostications. On today’s episode, we assemble David Birnbaum, is a former Liberal member of the Quebec National Assembly; Emma Cunningham, a former NDP riding executive in Pickering, Ont., who now serves as a school board trustee east of Toronto; and Dan Mader, a Conservative party strategist with Loyalist Public Affairs in Toronto, who also volunteers for CJPAC, the Canadian Jewish Political Affairs Committee.
Transcript
Transcripts are AI-generated and may contain errors.
Ellin Bessner: Those voices should be familiar to many of you listeners. Prime Minister Mark Carney and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh squaring off on Israel – Gaza during the recent English language leaders’ debates –
Meanwhile Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet accused Islamists of harassing Jews on the streets of Quebec and demanded something be done about it.
While Pierre Poilivere the leader of the opposition Conservatives doubled down on his condemnation of Hamas and pledged to tighten Canada’s borders to keep foreign conflicts off Canadian soil. And kick out those with visas who cause trouble.
Did you watch last week’s federal leaders’ debate? Did it change your minds about who to vote for?
Maybe you’ve already voted or maybe you just voted this past weekend in the advance polls. Elections Canada says a record number of people flocked to cast their ballots – 2 million people voted on Friday alone..
Or maybe you voted early from overseas?
Although Jewish Canadians make up only about 1 percent of the country’s population, and candidates and voters have been focusing on broader economic issues- like defending Canada’s sovereignty against Donald Trump, strengthen the military, building homes and pipelines, you may have noticed that all 4 main party leaders have been talking about Jewish issues and the Israel file -a lot- during the closing weeks of the 2025 federal election campaign, whether they bring it up themselves or respond to questions from journalists or even hecklers.
Are the parties campaigning for Jewish Canadian votes when there are very few ridings where these might impact who wins?
We’ve gathered our CJN Daily political panel for a pre-election round table, with some answers.
I’m Ellin Bessner and this is what Jewish canada sounds like for Monday April 21 2025
Welcome to The CJN Daily a podcast of the Canadian Jewish News and made possible in part thanks to the generous support of the Ira Gluskin and Maxine Granovsly Gluskin Charitable Foundation.
How will Canadian Jews vote this time round? Will many be one issue voters, so fed up after Oct 7 under the Liberals that they want the Conservatives in office and Pierre Poilievre who has been very vocal in his pro Israel stance and support for the safety of the Canadian Jewish community too?
Or will Mark Carney’s experience as an economist, central banker and businessman outweigh those concerns, despite his support for continued funding for UNRWA and the arms embargo on Israel.
Yet he;s also said he wont follow France’s president who will formally recognize Palestine soon. And Carney vowed to bring in bubble legislation to prevent protests outside Jewish buildings..and to boost funding for security gear.
Confused? We’ve got The CJN Daily’s political panel to clear things up.
In Montreal, David Birnbaum was a Liberal member of the Quebec National Assembly
In Pickering, Emma Cunningham was an NDP riding executive before parting ways with the provincial party over antisemitism..and from Toronto, we welcome Dan Mader, a Conservative strategist with Loyalist Public Affairs, and a volunteer with the CJPAC, Canadian Jewish Political Affairs Committee.
And just a note – we recorded our panel before the French leaders’ debate…
They join me now.
[David:] [Emma:] [Dan:] Thank you for having us back again.
[Ellin Bessner] And Dan, welcome for the first time. It’s great to have you with your Conservative background bona fides.
[Ellin:] We’re recording during Passover, the election is shortly after, would each of you tell us what happened around your Seder tables? What was the discussion like in terms of the Jewish vote and the issues people were worried and concerned about?
[Dan:] Yeah, look, I’d say the, you know, it’s pretty hard for these types of issues not to come up when I’m talking to friends. And I would say a mix. think there has been a shift in the community in the last couple of years towards the right, away, particularly from the NDP, but also away from the Liberals to some extent. And I think the question on a lot of people’s minds is, are things going to change with Mark Carney compared to Justin Trudeau when it comes to issues of concern for our community and if so, in which direction? And I think there was a lot of discussion and has been a lot of discussion around that question.
[Ellin:] And you’re saying the shift happened when? You said a few years ago.
[Dan:] I think there has been a long term shift to the Conservatives, you know, for last 15, 20 years. I think that there was, you know, probably some initial hope when Trudeau came in as Prime Minister, just as there was a lot of excitement about him among Canadians in general. And I think there has been a drift away from the Liberals over the years. And I think after October 7th, there’s been a significant shift away from Liberals and even more so away from the NDP. I always say that I feel for my friends who are Jews involved, particularly with the NDP. I’ve put many years into that party, many years into the progressive movement, only to find that the friends they thought they had weren’t there for them in their hour of need.
[Emma:] Well, thank you, because that’s my story.
[Ellin:] Okay. And David, I’m sure we’ll hear more about the situation in Quebec, but around your Seder table talk, what is the concerns of your guests?
[David:] Most of the discussions I have center around the one elephant in the room and one elephant who’s left the room, Donald Trump who’s in the room and Justin Trudeau who’s not on the ballot anymore. And when those discussions are coloured by our Jewish sensibilities. Some issues come to the table that are really big and important and existential. Will they follow us to the ballot box? My own sense is that for many people, they will only be part of the consideration when people enter the ballot box and that Trump, in the absence of Trudeau, will shape the decisions they make.
[Ellin:] Are you hearing more one issue voters now waffling or changing, or is that still the same that it’s only Israel and antisemitism that is fuelling their vote?
[Emma:] I do think there’s some one issue voters, but I think Jews like everyone else, you we’re not a monolith. Israel and antisemitism definitely heightened priorities, especially post October 7th. But, you know, we can’t reduce Jewish political identity to just that one issue. So community safety for sure is a big concern. You know, the rising antisemitism in schools, you know, my my rabbi, his kids’ school was shot at three times. but also universities, protests, online, all major concerns. For sure, Israel, you know, watching the stance on arms embargoes, the UN votes, supporting for UNRWA, any international legal actions like the ICC, but also things like, you know, free expression and academic intimidation, Jewish students not feeling safe on campus. And then on top of all that, the issues that everyone is worried about, like housing affordability, healthcare access, economic security, climate action, at least from where I’m coming from, the opposition to the far right populism, including the US style rhetoric, anything about the 51st state, definitely key issues, especially perhaps among younger Jews.
[David:] My own sense is that in the Montreal Jewish community, we want to separate the two baskets of key concerns as Jews because I think the perception of how they’re dealt with is different. If you take the whole package of Jewish security and safety here in Montreal and across the country, I think the lines are not as clearly drawn as they might have been. And again, I come back to the elephant who’s left the room. The treatment of Jewish issues and the general dissatisfaction perhaps, widely expressed towards the Liberals, I think on the Israel-related basket of issues attached a lot personally to Justin Trudeau. And he’s gone. He’s not on the ballot.
The second basket of issues relating to all of the domestic-type issues, I would suggest that even under Justin Trudeau, the perception of government performance as opposed to opposition was more mitigated. Probably a collective sense of greater dissatisfaction with Liberal responses to campus activity, but less so than on Israel and Hamas related issues.
So even those who are going to head to the ballot box with very much Jewish related issues top of mind, I think are now heading to the ballot box with the choice of Mark Carney versus Pierre Poilievre and that choice being less urgent and clear with respect to who is defending them better.
[Dan:] I agree with a lot of what David said there. I think that things really did attach to Justin Trudeau and it became very personal. And in a way that gave some of the provincial governments a pass. When people talk about the situation in schools, the situation in universities, the antisemitism the kids are facing, I would always hear people blame Justin Trudeau for that. And when you would talk to people and say, “Aren’t those provincial responsibilities? Should we be talking to our provincial government?” They would say, “Yeah. But once Justin Trudeau’s gone, things will be better.” Which was obviously wrong. Those are provincial issues. We need our provincial governments to step up and say it is unacceptable for teachers to be antisemitic. It’s unacceptable for schools and universities to tolerate blatant discrimination against Jewish students. But I think people had this hope that there would be some shift in the culture when Trudeau left, and that would solve all these problems. Obviously, that isn’t happening. And I think that, you know, Jewish Canadians are making a big mistake at the federal level also, if they think that this was all a Justin Trudeau problem and it’s going to leave with Justin Trudeau.
You have multiple members of the Liberal caucus, multiple liberal members signing this Palestine pledge. What I like to call the Jihad pledge. Pledging support for the elimination of Israel. And you’ve heard what Mark Carney has had to say. I know he has said he supports the ICJ and that the ICJ will decide if Israel is committing genocide or whatever the ICJ says he goes with. I think that is a fundamentally wrong thing to say.
Ellin Bessner: Just one fact check here. It’s not clear that Carney has ever said he supports the ICJ or the ICC or that he would abide by their coming judgements on Israel and genocide and war crimes. As you’ve heard he did respond to a heckler in Calgary who asked him about the genocide in Palestine, by doubling down on the arms embargo on Israel, but later walked back his comment, saying he didn’t hear the man say genocide.
Dan Mader: He has also said he supports an arms embargo on Israel while sending aid to the Palestinians. We all know that aid to the Palestinians means weapons against Israel because that’s where the aid gets diverted to. So nothing has changed with Trudeau leaving. If anything, it’s going to be worse. And I hear the same things David is saying that Trudeau’s gone. It’s fine. We can be Liberals again and be comfortable. But I think people are making a big mistake.
Ellin Bessner: There’s a lot of issues that you mentioned and raised about who’s going to be better for Israel and for the Jews. Is it Carney or is it Poilievre?
Is this genuine courting of the Jewish community, which is literally only 1 % of the whole population, so very, very small minority of voters. What’s the deal with Poilievre? Is he really the saviour for Jewish people that he makes it himself out to be?
[Dan:] I would never call anyone the saviour of the Jewish people. I don’t think we need a saviour. I don’t think we want a saviour. That’s kind of what we’re about. What I would say is I think this is genuine. This is not courting. This is genuine. This is how we genuinely believe.I’ve known Pierre a long time. I’ve known and am quite good friends with people in this caucus like Shuv Majumdar, who if anything is even louder in his support of our community. And I would tell you this is genuine. As you say, we make up a very small percentage of the electorate. There’s only two or three ridings in the country where we make up even a significant part of the electorate. We’re not even dominant there.
There is no electoral advantage in pandering to the Jewish community and trying to cultivate Jewish votes. If anything, you see right-wing parties, like in Ontario provincially, saying, you know what, the votes are in the other direction. The votes are not in the direction of the Jewish community. And therefore, you know, it is electorally not a smart strategic move to say the kind of things that Pierre has been saying. And he knows that. He’s saying them because he genuinely believes them.
[David Birnbaum:] I trust that he believes them. And his speech in Montreal deeply resonated with many in the Jewish community. I would dispute whether they represent an electoral risk. I’m not sure that’s true. Those who would be offended by his pro-Israel and pro-community comments are not within the potential conservative sphere of voters anyway. So I would say that it’s quite easy electorally for him to do what I think is the right thing.
[Dan:] I’ve got to disagree with that. I think if you look at the Ontario election, you look at the number of Muslim candidates running for the Ontario PC party, elected for the Ontario PC party in parts of Ontario where there are increasingly large Muslim communities, I think that those communities are definitely accessible votes for conservative-leading parties
[Emma:] I reject the idea that it’s us versus them, of Jews versus Muslims, I don’t think that’s a space that I want to get into. And I think that’s a space that not a lot of us want to get into. So for sure, Israel versus Palestine may be an issue that our communities do have some disagreements on. But I think in general, Islamophobia and antisemitism are both particularly large, important issues.
I do think that Poilievre believes what he’s saying about his clear and forceful support of Israel, really strong language around antisemitism, efforts to defend Jewish students on campus. But I think right now, myself included, we’re so focused in the way that antisemitism appears on the Left, particularly when it comes to Israel, that we sometimes forget the strength on the Right.
And Poilievre, I don’t know where on the spectrum he falls, but I do know he’s courted a lot of people on the far right. And so there’s a lot of language used like globalists, elites that in the past have been used as dog whistles for Jews and that idea that we hold all the power. So globalists in particular is language that I take issue with. And I think a lot of the language he uses do have a bit of an anti minority sentiment and we can’t eliminate the idea that we are a minority. So any sort of push against a minority is in some ways a push against us. So I think we’re so focused on Israel and so focused on the way that antisemitism appears on the left that it’s escaping notice that he’s courting those votes on the far right. And that concerns me.
[Dan:] I think too often we get consumed by all the media coming out of the U.S. and we look at things in the U.S. context. I think in Canada, when Pierre is talking about we shouldn’t be globalists, what he is rejecting is, again, something that Justin Trudeau said, that we’re a post-nationalist state and all the move to say we shouldn’t honour our past, we should be ashamed of our past, we shouldn’t be proud to be Canadians. It’s been great to see everyone being proud to be a Canadian again, both the Liberals and the NDP, the last six weeks or eight weeks, but these are the same people who are putting Sir John A. Macdonald statues in boxes and lowering the flag for months. And that is what Pierre has been against, to say, you know, this Liberal view that we should be ashamed to be Canadian, we shouldn’t honour our history, we’re more about the world than about Canada. It’s good to see other people come around to that now, but we shouldn’t forget that this is sort of expediency. And when Pierre complains about globalists, I think that is what he is talking about.
[Ellin Bessner:] David, last time we spoke about federal politics and Pierre Poilievre, I know you hate when I quote your old tapings to you, but in December, I think when we talked about Poilievre in Quebec, you weren’t so sure that he is going to be the popular guy in Quebec. That the Bloc will still be very, very popular. He’s not going to have much traction outside of maybe Montreal. Is that still true? A lot of things have changed. Trudeau’s gone. How is Poilievre, and the Conservatives doing in terms of the Quebec support and where the Bloc is?
[David:] Not that well. There’s no doubt that the Conservative Party is working really hard to find a beachhead in Montreal and that would come in Mount Royal and the poll suggests that despite a very bitter race between Anthony Housefather and Neil Oberman that it won’t materialize and Anthony will hold on to the riding.
And with an increasing understanding beyond – what I personally think. including our Jewish community – the ballot question is, who can deal with Trump? And that could very much have both Bloc and Conservative support dissipate in Quebec and that the election, if not won elsewhere in the country, be won for the Liberals in Quebec.
[Ellin Bessner:] So does it matter then to Quebecers about the language, first of all, that Carney’s French is terrible and Pierre Poilievre’s is a bit better?
[David:] Yeah, and increasingly there’s polls and streeters in Quebec showing that French Quebecers are tolerant of Carney’s laboured French. He says what he wants to say. It’s pretty painful to listen to, but that won’t be a major factor. You’ll all probably know –
[Ellin:] He supported Hamas, hello, and then Chrystia Freeland had to change it on the leaders debate. So,
[David:] Yeah, he’s made some major gaffes. What I’m hearing is that he has to lose very badly in a French debate. that he’ll have to stumble very badly, but like I say, it’s so clear that the ballot question in Quebec is who can deal with Donald Trump. The backup ballot question is, is there anybody on this ballot who deeply, deeply concerns me, and I’m talking about the majority French community, on language. And there’s not a clear winner. It’s very surprising to hear that Pierre Poilievre would use the Notwithstanding Clause on the crime issues. That in our Jewish and in our English speaking community is absolute anathema to invoke a limiting of Charter rights on questions that could touch on language if they’re going to touch on crime. So that doesn’t help the Conservatives in Jewish or English Quebec either.
[Ellin:] You mentioned Anthony Housefather, Neil Oberman. So let’s get into some of the juicy ridings that our listeners should watch across the country. There are many where even if the candidates aren’t Jewish, there are a lot of Jewish voters. So it should go west to east.
Could each of you tell our audience if you have any direct affiliation or working for any particular candidate?
[David:] I have no horse in this race. I’m following it with great interest.
[Emma:] Same answer for me.
[Dan:] I can’t help myself. I’m always involved. This time I did some fundraising for a few concerned candidates and I’m helping to run get out the vote for a very close friend of mine who is a candidate for the Tories.
[Ellin:] Are you allowed to say who it is?
[Dan:] Keith Roy. Running in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky country, hoping to replace one of the worst candidates, one of the worst MPs in the House, I would say, for our community, Patrick Weiler.
[Ellin:] Tell me why the worst.
[Dan:] Look, he is no friend of Israel, to say the least. Big supporter of an arms embargo. He signed on to the pledge to support more sanctions and cutting off of Israel. And it would be good to see him replaced.
We’ve got Avi Lewis for the NDP again, and we have Tamara Kronis for the PC in Nanaimo
Dan: Elizabeth May is another one, the Green Party leader. You know, if current polling holds, she’s likely to lose. I think Avi Lewis has been a great concern for a lot of people in the community. If he wins, he will almost certainly run for leader of the NDP. And I think we’d have a good shot at winning that. I think right now he looks like he’s going to lose.
And yeah, look, I think there are a few others. Everyone is going to be watching Jagmeet Singh and some of the other NDP members and see how far this slide in NDP support goes.
[Ellin:] Then Winnipeg. Well, first of all, Marty Morantz and then there’s Leah Gazan and Ben Carr. Those are three Jewish MPs from different parties. How are they going to do? Are they going to be reelected?
[Dan:] I think that Marty’s in for a tough fight, been a good MP, but he’s in for a tough fight with Liberal support increasing. I think that, you know, we have started to see a swing back in favour of the Conservatives, particularly in the West. And hopefully that’s enough to save him. Leah Gazan may be still threatened by the Liberal wave there. And that, you know, that should make Ben Carr pretty safe.
[Ellin:] We’re going to go to some of the Ontario ridings in the GTA. People are very interested in Ya’ara Saks versus Roman Baber for the Conservatives. Does anybody have any thoughts on that race? Who’s likely to win?
[Emma:] Yeah, I think when we last talked in December, we were saying that she was probably going to lose her riding. But I think since then, we’ve seen the pendulum swing towards the Liberals, whereas before, Poilievre looked like a bit of a shoe-in. And frankly, I think she’s going to win that riding. I spend a fair bit of time there, even though I don’t live there. And I see a lot of signs for her, a lot of support. And as we’ve said already today, Jewish population is 1%. There are certainly Jewish people there, but I wouldn’t say it’s a Jewish riding. You know, looking at polls, she’s likely to win.
[Dan:] Yeah, look, people can watch Karen Stintz in Eglinton-Lawrence. I think that increasingly is sort of the top target for the Conservatives. And so I know a lot of efforts going in there.
[Emma:] Another riding I’m watching is Davenport. Sandra Souza is the NDP candidate there. She organized Davenport for Palestine, which is a grassroots group that advocates for Palestinian solidarity. Not always a bad thing, right? They could use some help right about now. But what’s unfortunate about her is that the Jewish community in Davenport has been asking for a sit down with her and she’s refusing to meet with them. And that tells me a little bit about which Palestinian organization she’s likely to support. So I’m hoping the Liberal MP who is the incumbent there will take that seat because I think Sandra Souza is a risk for the Jewish community. It makes me very nervous that she’s refusing that sit down.
[Ellin:] We also forgot Evan Solomon, big time Canadian, former broadcaster, moved to the States to be a publisher, came back to Canada to run in this election for Mark Carney and he’s running in Toronto Centre. He’s a star candidate, Jewish, high profile, is he likely to win?
[Dan:] Almost certainly, it’s a pretty safe Liberal seat. Even the Liberals are struggling there, winning that seat. And so, uh, it would be shocking to not see Evan win.
[Ellin:] How about Toronto-St. Paul’s? The Tories took it last by-election, Don Stewart, but Leslie Church is back. And if you’re saying the Liberals are maybe going to turn the tide again and take that seat back, is that a thing? She apologized, she’s reaching out to the Jewish community more.
[Dan:] I would say Leslie is definitely a friend of the community. I know her personally. And, you know, Don has also been great. I think we’re very lucky as a community to have both Liberal and Conservative candidates there who are friends. I think Don has done a great job at a short time in parliament and definitely does deserve to be reelected, but he’s definitely out for a fight. I know he’s putting up a fight, but it’s definitely a fight.
[Ellin:] We should also mention, of course, in Ottawa, two major races. First of all, Nepean is where Mark Carney is running. There’s two or three shuls there out of the six that are in Ottawa. I know he went – Mark Carney went – to Rabbi Mikelberg’s, which is a Reform Temple, before Pessach to make matzah balls and do a little video about how Jewishy-he is. But apparently he hasn’t courted the community at all until that video in Nepean.
And then there’s another riding, which is Joel Harden, who’s not a friend of Israel’s.
[Emma:] Oh, I have some opinions on Joel Harden. I think we’re a few years out from the time when he said that when he knocks the door of a clearly Jewish home, he immediately asked them for their stance on Israel because, you know, we’re all responsible for a foreign country. He wears a Palestine pin when he knocked the doors of Jewish community. So just deliberately aggravating and upsetting the community for his own. I’m not going to say amusement, but his own feelings. Find him really upsetting. So I don’t follow him the way that he used to. I’ve kind of taken a bit of a step back from tracking the NDP’s movement as closely as I did when I walked out of the party. But I would certainly never want to see Joel Harden retain his seat. That kind of deliberate antagonization of the community, whether he’s still doing it or not, I think is unforgivable.
[Ellin:] Okay. I wanna remember Karina Gould. She was the cabinet minister in Burlington and she’s up for a fight. They had to cancel one of her all candidates debates because Maxime Bernier’s gang were going to do a march to the church where she was having a debate. She was dropped from cabinet under Carney. I don’t know if she’ll get reelected in Burlington. She’s been there. It’ll be 10 years for her. She said she was a Zionist on her interview, but yet she gave money to UNRWA and voted with her government on all the anti-Israel policies. David, anybody else besides Anthony and Neil Obermann in Montreal that are worth a quick check?
[David:] Well, Rachel Bendayan, who’s in that short-lived cabinet, will surely win a very, very safe riding in Outremont. I will suggest that a Jewish candidate will win in Mount Royal and it’ll likely be the incumbent, Anthony.
I think it’s worth remembering with some humility that our community’s collective electoral clout is somewhat limited and it reminds us that political influence goes so far beyond how we vote collectively and includes in all its diversity the real importance of continuing to have elected and involve Jewish voices across the political spectrum. I think about the importance of having strong, diverse Jewish community influence on the workings of government. And that means the desirability of having elected the Jewish members and, of course, others who are deeply sensitive to an understanding of the issues that matter to us.
[Ellin:] A lot of people have said, including Anthony Housefather, that it’s bad for the Jewish community to put all their eggs in one basket. Because if this certain government is in now, they won’t be in in the next time. And you need to make Jewish issues nonpartisan.
[Dan:] Look, I think what we need to do is support those in all the parties who are friends of our community and friends of Israel. And sometimes that’s hard. Sometimes there aren’t a lot of those running in some parties, but we have to do what we can to find those people and support them. That doesn’t necessarily just mean supporting the Jewish candidates, but finding those who are supportive and our friends and supporting them. And yes, we don’t want to end up in a situation where, you know, there’s only one party that supports us. only get support when they’re in power and otherwise not, but, you know, on the other hand, we can’t allow people to take us for granted. And so. We have to hold people accountable when they support interests that are against us.
[Ellin:] People remember that when Stephen Harper was Prime Minister, everyone now thinks he’s the best friend the Jews ever had. He never recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel – which I’m not saying we should or shouldn’t, but Canada didn’t do that. They didn’t move the embassy to Jerusalem, which Pierre Poilievre’s people said they would do. The Liberals didn’t either.
[Dan:] I think that sums it up very well. Again, going back to provincial level, I think there are lot of governments across Canada whose leadership has said all the right things. But you look at the situation, for instance, for Jewish kids in schools, and I don’t see any action being taken. So you need action.
[Ellin:] I know one party, the Conservatives, said they would defund woke antisemitic universities, which is a provincial matter. No one has done that in the 18 months since October 7th anywhere. It’s a Trumpy thing, but it’s part of the conversation. especially McGill and Concordia. Oh my God, like they’re smashing windows where you live!
[David:] Oh, which is, which, is absolutely terrible. But we also have to be careful, but pretending there are monolithic Jewish approaches to these issues, that kind of statement about banning woke reactions, it leaves open all kinds of doors to the notion of suppressing individual liberties and freedoms, which is pretty dear and cherished by Jewish traditional and community values. So there’s shades of gray to our Jewish preoccupations as well, and to the way we react to certain unequivocal statements about dealing with issues that matter to us. So lots of shades of gray in all of this.
[Dan:] We can’t pretend that there is any kind of freedom of speech on the universities today. There is freedom of speech for the hard left. And those to the right, and particularly our community, are discriminated against. And I think what the Conservatives are talking about is trying to restore that balance and end some of this discrimination that our community suffers from, but that others do too.
[Ellin:] Lastly, do you believe the polls?
[Dan:] 100 % I believe the polls. 100 % I believe the polls, but I believe the polls can swing just as they’ve moved in the last few months. I think things are going to tighten up and I think things are going to move back in favor of the conservatives just as they have started to do over last few days. So I’m predicting a Conservative minority government.
[Ellin:] Minority, which is a huge difference from a 25 point lead before Trump and Trudeau. Okay. Wow. Emma?
[Emma:] I also believe the polls. I think the biggest issue is complacency. If liberal polls retain the lead and people start thinking, I don’t have to go out because they’re going to win. That’s when you lose badly. So I think complacency is a big issue always, but I think we’ve seen solid enough trends, you polls, we’ve almost seen Conservatives and Liberals flip in a lot of ridings. You know, my riding was 99 % chance of a conservative win when the Conservative candidate put her name forward and flipped to a 99 % chance of a liberal win. And that happened almost overnight when Trudeau stepped down. And since he stepped down, I’ve only really seen things go up since Carney was elected.
Are things tweaking slightly to the Conservatives over the past couple days? Sure, but not on a scale where I think they’re going to take the lead. So I’m predicting a Liberal government and frankly I’m on the fence as to whether it’s going to be a minority or majority.
[Ellin:] I’m sure the interest is higher in this election, just from everyone’s talking about this. It’ll be very interesting to see. David, do you believe the polls?
[David:] Yes, I do. And I do think the turnout will be high. I do think the gap is closing. I believe the polls very much and that the NDP’s collapse will be close to total. The jury is out on how well the Bloc will do in Quebec still. But I believe the gap will not close enough to prevent what will be at least a slim liberal majority. I see the hill as much too big to climb with respect to Pierre Poilievre in not having, like I say, engaged those who haven’t decided to vote for him yet. And I see great potential for Mark Carney to look a little bit more human in the remaining days and maybe a little more passionate, which I think will motivate those who are not quite in the Liberal camp yet to secure that at least slight Liberal majority.
[Ellin:] This has been fascinating. I can’t wait to speak to you guys on election night after the results. Thank you so much for being on the CJN Daily’s political panel, David, Emma and Dan for your first time.
[David:] [Emma:] [Dan:] Thanks a lot. It’s been a pleasure.
Ellin Bessner: And that’s what Jewish Canada sounds like for this episode of The CJN Daily. Made possible thanks to the generous support of the Ira Gluskin and Maxine Granovsky Gluskin Charitable Foundation.
Our show was produced by Zachary Judah Kauffman and Andrea Varsany
Our executive producer is Michael Fraiman
Editorial director is Marc Weisblott
And our music is by Dov Beck Levine.
Show Notes
Related links
- The CJN’s Jonathan Rothman takes the temperature of Jewish voters across Canada ahead of the April 28 federal election.
- The CJN’s Joel Ceausu reports from the riding of Mount Royal where incumbent Anthony Housefather faces off against Neil Oberman for the Conservatives.
- Get The CJN political columnist Josh Liebleine’s Passover take on the election campaign, in The CJN.
Credits
- Host and writer: Ellin Bessner (@ebessner)
- Production team: Zachary Kauffman (senior producer), Andrea Varsany (producer), Michael Fraiman (executive producer), Marc Weisblott (editorial director)
- Music: Dov Beck-Levine
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