This is the second 2025 federal election edition of Doorstep Postings, the political column written by Josh Lieblein for The CJN. (Stay tuned for more reporting on hot riding races, and conversations on The CJN Daily podcast with Ellin Bessner.)
The official line for this election is that a lot of unexpected things are happening. Campaigns need to pivot, polls are reversing themselves, and voters from the lesser parties are mass migrating back to their ancestral Liberal home.
But don’t worry, because the Conservatives are drawing big numbers at their rallies, Mark Carney is cracking under the pressure, Polymarket had Pierre Poilievre in the lead just three days ago, and the Liberal vote is soft. As usual, everything is totally out of control and everything is under control at the same time. It is so over! We are so back! Don’t miss the next development in the horse race!
Former PMSH aide and Doug Ford campaign guy Kory Teneycke went off on the Conservative campaign strategy on an Empire Club panel last night. "You've got to get on the fucking ballot question or you are going to lose." Audio: https://t.co/cNBGOG565Z
— Glen E. McGregor (@glen_mcgregor) March 27, 2025
In reality, every aspect of this campaign was, and is, entirely predictable, as most campaigns or happenings in this country are. Things are so predictable that a schlemiel like myself has been better than usual at predicting them: Here I am in November predicting a Liberal surge in the era of Trump 2.0. Flash forward to January when this column outlined the arc of the Liberal leadership race before the players were confirmed, to the point of realizing that a contender would be picked as a scapegoat. (This turned out to be Chrystia Freeland.) And there I was in February saying Carney would romp to victory in the leadership race and captivate the nation.
Poilievre just told a Canadians that Carney is still invested in Brookfield, apparently Poilievre is also invested in Brookfield. Begs the question if he is also then benefiting from offshoring? https://t.co/ZeNJsm74E0
— Althia Raj (@althiaraj) March 27, 2025
I won’t be able to tell you who’s going to win this election in time for the first seder, however, because I need to watch the debate first. (Steve Paikin’s moderation gig conveniently falls halfway through Passover.) This is because I have to know if voters actually want someone who can throw a punch at Donald Trump if the situation calls for it, or if they want a guy who will maintain a stiff upper lip as the country crumbles. If you need to know before that time, go ask Elijah the Prophet when he wafts through your door. Until then, let’s talk about a predictable trend that is breaking a lot earlier than usual: Conservative finger-pointing behind the scenes.
We are excited to announce that Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer will be the closing speaker, Friday April 11, at this year’s Canada’s Strong and Free Conference in Ottawa! 🤩
— Canada Strong and Free Network (@canstrongfree) March 6, 2025
Robert E. Lighthizer served as the 18th United States Trade Representative (USTR) from 2017 to 2020. An… pic.twitter.com/nKIy0n77iH
First, let me give you the secret for predicting Canadian elections and political developments so you can do it in the comfort of your own home: you need to identify the things that happen over and over again. Once you realize that Liberals can promise a bunch of nonsense and maintain a facade of positivity and lots of people will fall for it, you won’t be able to unsee it. Ditto for the belief that what we need is an outsider with a strong resume to come in and shake up the process in Ottawa, and that yes, boomer nostalgia for the 1990s is as potent as it ever was, and the current moment we find ourselves in now doesn’t seem so once-in-a-lifetime.
Liberal spokesman Mike Myers: "I'm grateful to the Canadian public for subsidising my education, housing, and my old job at the CBC so that I could move the United States, become an American citizen, and make millions" https://t.co/ArUEOIjH2p
— Ryan O'Connor (@rpoconnor) March 24, 2025
Talk beats action, the Laurentian Consensus is unbreakable, anger is never acceptable even in the face of a country threatening crisis, Canadians will not sacrifice for the greater good beyond virtue-signalling gestures like #ElbowsUp, and above all, the other parties exist to give our country the appearance of a democracy. The best a CPC or NDP government, should one exist, can do is keep the throne warm until the Liberals sort themselves out.
Just like the Jewish people have an Oral Law, Canadian politics have them too—and on occasion, they supersede whatever is in writing. And even though the specifics change on occasion, once you learn them you will have a general idea of how things go.
Mark Carney has so much aura, dont care for any counter opinions
— A (@_marlanderthews) March 9, 2025
New Democrats have no shame about abandoning their sad socialist sack of a party for a central banker with aura, because the alternative is to pat themselves on the back when the Liberals steal their idea for dental care and pharmacare. Conservatives, on the other hand, hate it when the Liberals steal their ideas. And, unlike the NDP they actually like being in government.
So, there is the endless search for a gimmick, some sort of new idea that will trick voters into voting for them. Listen, have you ever been sitting on a synagogue board or other Jewish community group when suddenly everyone around the table is captivated by some wild idea that will attract vast sums of money and volunteers and interest? It’s kind of like that.
I’ve convened the Cabinet Committee on Canada-U.S. Relations this morning in response to President Trump’s attack on our workers and our industries.
— Mark Carney (@MarkJCarney) March 27, 2025
We will get through this crisis — and we will build a stronger, more resilient economy.
This is the reason for the constant behind the scenes backstabbing and infighting and succession battles in the various right-wing parties. Conservatives need to be champions of the working class! No, we need to be advocates for keeping women sports for women. No, we need to make inroads among new Canadians. No, we need to be environmentally conscious green Tories! Conservatives need to be for Trump and embrace populism! Oh no, the polls flipped in the middle of an election! Run away from Trump! Trump bad! Never 51! Canada is not for sale!
And when one of these gimmicks falls apart, as they always do, everyone always knew that it was a vote loser, and they would have spoken up before it was too late, but, well, you know, you’ve got to be a team player in politics.
#BREAKING: Howard Lutnick calls Doug Ford – again, with more assurances: Ontario expects U.S. to lessen impact of auto tariffs on Canada, following Lutnick phone call: source #onpoli https://t.co/ZXaf4Hkzub
— Laura Stone (@l_stone) March 27, 2025
You might ask, why don’t the Conservatives just focus on governing? Why can’t they just be good managers? Because the voters understand you can get that from the Liberals already. This is why Carney is promising all the same things Poilievre promised. Trudeau’s successor may have opposed everything his main rival was planning until a few weeks ago, but nobody seems interested in laying that at Carney’s feet at the moment. If you think a more rational Conservative could beat Carney, imagine how rational that Conservative would look after Liberals take every idea for their own—leaving the opposition with nothing but gimmicks!
Art of the Deal. pic.twitter.com/qMhnk3Sz1w
— National Meme Board of Canada 👊🇨🇦🔥 (@NMBCanada) March 22, 2025
Overall, it’s making the Conservative Party of Canada so crazy that they are starting to turn on each other ahead of schedule. As usual, they have no one to blame but themselves.
Josh Lieblein can be reached at [email protected] for your response to Doorstep Postings.
