By the time this is printed, a coalition government might have been formed here in Israel. Somehow I doubt it.
When the election results became clear in the early hours of Feb. 11, it also became evident they were anomalous. The centrist Kadima party, headed by Tzipi Livni, won the most Knesset seats (28 out of 120), but a right-wing bloc of six parties, led by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, won a 65-seat plurality.
Under Israel’s constitutional system, after conferring with all factions elected to the Knesset, the president must call on an MK to form a government. Traditionally, the largest party’s leader has been given the task. However, when it became apparent that Livni wouldn’t be able to do so, President Shimon Peres gave Netanyahu the nod.
Legally, Netanyahu has 28 days to try, with Peres authorized to lengthen that period by 14 days. With the myriad issues to be dealt with, Netanyahu must act quickly and effectively to create a viable government.
He could piece together a coalition with little delay based on Likud and its “natural allies” on the right – two haredi parties (Shas and Yahadut HaTorah), a nationalist religious party (the Jewish Home), and two ultra-nationalist parties (National Union and Israel Beytenu).
The last, Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beytenu, is now the third-largest faction in the Knesset, its success based on nationalistic fervour in the wake of the recent Gaza operation (and the party’s call to annul “disloyal” Arab Israelis’ citizenship), and huge support from Russian new immigrants.
While this “natural alliance” might function in relative unison when dealing with security-related issues and demands on Israel to make concessions for peace, it will be hard-pressed if Lieberman lives up to his campaign promises to promote legalized civil marriages and easier conversion procedures. These initiatives won’t sit well with the religious elements in this possible coalition, and it won’t be long before it begins to teeter.
Understanding the limits of his success and grounded in his own experience, Netanyahu is bent on forming a wider coalition. During his previous stint as prime minister in 1996, he managed to hold power for only three years, due to his government’s slim plurality and constant infighting within it, and particularly within his own party.
With this backdrop, Netanyahu has invited Kadima and Ehud Barak’s debilitated Labor Party to join him in a national unity government. While such governments have been criticized for serving the lowest common denominator and leading to stagnation, there have been several successful precedents for such administrations. Menachem Begin joined Levi Eshkol and Golda Meir in governments that functioned well from just before the Six Day War in 1967 until nearly the end of the War of Attrition in 1969. Peres and Yitzchak Shamir governed satisfactorily for four years in the mid 1980s, each serving as prime minister for two years.
Given its abysmal election results, the chances of Labor joining any coalition are slim. To do so would be political suicide. It needs time in opposition to regroup and renew its voice.
Kadima might be a different story. Netanyahu has offered it two of the most important ministerial positions. Livni, who views herself as the election’s true victor, has to date rejected Netanyahu’s overtures, claiming his government will be far too hawkish and refusing to become a mask for its policies. She might reluctantly consider a prime ministerial rotation between Netanyahu and herself, similar to Shamir and Peres, which would allay suspicions about Netanyahu’s true ambitions. For now, however, the party’s line is that it prefers consolidating power while in opposition.
Not having attained pre-election goals, neither of the major parties can achieve all their aspirations.
The matters at hand demand political maturity and magnanimity – Gaza and Hamas, Gilad Schalit’s release, a nuclear Iran, the economy and the need for election reforms, to name but a few. While a national unity government is not a solution to all our woes, it’s what this country needs and is also what an overwhelming majority of the people want.
Whether through prime ministerial rotation or some other political formula, Netanyahu and Livni must put their egos aside and responsibly forge a sustainable united government.