TORONTO — Israel has stabilized its northern and southern borders since the wars with Hezbollah in the summer of 2006 and with Hamas late last year and early in 2009, claims a Kadima party member of Knesset.
Nachman Shai
“They had a huge effect, no doubt,” said Nachman Shai, a leading commentator on Israeli television and radio, in an interview from Israel last week.
Shai, who served as the spokesperson for the Israeli armed forces during the 1991 Gulf War, said that Israel’s vigorous military campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza restored Israel’s deterrent power, though the situation can change abruptly should another crisis erupt.
“Deterrence worked,” said Shai, a brigadier general in the reserves who is scheduled to help launch the UIA Federations Canada annual campaign in Canada on Sept. 10.
In Shai’s view, the unofficial ceasefire between Israel and Hamas may last indefinitely, even though Palestinian armed groups based in Gaza continue to fire rockets into Israel periodically.
“Hamas also has a strong interest in maintaining the truce so that it can rebuild Gaza,” noted Shai, referring to the widespread destruction caused by Israel’s land and air offensive. “I don’t know how long the ceasefire will hold, but we’d like it to go on.”
As for Hezbollah’s observance of the United Nations truce, Shai said, “I don’t think they’re interested in another war.”
But in a reference to Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon, Shai, currently the director general of the United Jewish Communities organization in Israel, said, “We have warned them not to get too close to the border.”
In reply to a question, Shai said that the Israeli government should not negotiate with Hamas unless it renounces terrorism and promises to abide by agreements signed by the Palestinian Authority and Israel.
He does not exclude the possibility that Fatah – a mainstream Palestinian faction controlled by PA President Mahmoud Abbas – may wrest Gaza away from Hamas.
But he’s certain the Israeli army won’t permit Hamas to take over the West Bank, which is administered by Fatah.
Shai, whose centrist party declined to join Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-of-centre coalition government, sees no reason why Netanyahu is demanding Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. “Israel doesn’t need it. ”
Shai said the Israeli government shouldn’t impose preconditions on the PA before a resumption of direct talks with Israel.
Asked whether he agrees with an assertion by Kadima leader Tzipi Livni that Netanyahu wasn’t sincere when he recently recognized the concept of a two-state solution, Shai replied, “There’s much truth in that.”
Shai said he’s not sure whether Netanyahu sincerely desires talks with the Palestinians, since such negotiations could well alienate his right-wing partners and break up the coalition.
Nonetheless, Shai predicted that new talks will begin, since the United States has called for them. (Last week, the U.S. State Department announced that Israel and the Palestinians were closer than ever to restarting bilateral negotiations, which ended after Israel’s previous prime minister, Ehud Olmert, resigned).
Israel should respond “positively” to Washington’s call for a broad settlement freeze in the West Bank to encourage an atmosphere conducive to negotiations, Shai said.
“We should should look for a compromise, and we should make make some concessions.”
According to Shai, there’s a chance that Israel and Syria may resume indirect talks through the good offices of Turkey. “Both sides have expressed an interest.”
Israel isn’t obliged to meet Syria’s demand for a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights, he said. “Both parties should have an open mind. Let’s see how it goes. Syria will find Israel forthcoming.”
Speculating that Netanyahu may yet decide to engage the Syrians, Shai said he doubts whether Israel will enter into substantive talks with Syria and the Palestinians simultaneously.
Asked whether Israel should accept the Arab League’s peace initiative – which calls for a full Israeli pullout from territories conquered by Israel during the Six Day War in exchange for Arab recognition and normalization – Shai talked about its “positive elements.”
He added, “It can serve as a basis for negotiations.”
Shai contended that the international community, not Israel, should mobilize public opinion against Iran’s quest for a nuclear arsenal.
But he acknowledged that the economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the United Nations until now haven’t gone far enough.
Though he refused to be drawn into a discussion on the possibility of an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, he said, “The military option should be on the table.”
Shai is due to speak in Toronto on Sept. 10 and in Halifax on Sept. 13.
