Who will be the next prime minister?
 

Can Benjamin Netanyahu hold on to power, or will someone else assume the mantle? What will happen when Israelis go to the polls March 17? We’ve got 16 predictions. 

Avi Benlolo
President and CEO of Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center for Holocaust Studies.

Unlike the American political system, which has two parties (Democratic and Republican), or the Canadian system with three main parties (Conservative, Liberal, NDP), Israel is represented by some 34 political parties. Predicting Israel’s upcoming election results is, therefore, a near impossibility. 

The mood in Israel today is twofold: fearful and impatient, with a desire for change. On one hand, Israelis are hyper-concerned about the threats that surround them, including a nuclear Iran, missiles from Hamas and Hezbollah, and an Islamic State spillover from Syria.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has done a relatively good job of keeping Israel safe.

On the other hand, a consequence of the natural human need for change is that most Israelis are ready for new leadership. This is why the Zionist Union headed by Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni is leading in the polls. However, in Israel, it’s safety first. This is why Netanyahu is likely to triumph, although very much weakened by the social change most Israelis seek. 

I believe the next government will form a fractured coalition in the Knesset. Whatever the outcome, you can bet one thing for sure: the next election will be right around the corner – again. 

Avrum Rosensweig
President and CEO of Ve’ahavta, 
The Canadian Jewish Humanitarian and Relief Committee.

The Jewish People and the State of Israel are as complex as the characters in a Russian novel. 

Three of my nieces, sisters in their 30s, have different views of the Israeli elections.

Miriam, a mother of seven who lives next to an Arab village, hopes Benjamin Netanyahu will continue to be the prime minister. She says his coalition would include “[Naftali] Bennett, the haredi parties, and either Lapid’s Yesh Atid or Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu.” She doesn’t want to think about a Labor victory.

Devorah, from Efrat, is voting for Meretz, a secular party that “will provide human rights for all its citizens.” Devorah states, “I support their lobbying for women’s rights. I want my kids to not think they are better because they’re Jewish, to not make decisions in life based on the Holocaust, and to learn to live together with the overall population.”  

Deena, a prolific writer living in Jerusalem, doesn’t care about the elections. Deena writes, “I believe in grassroots initiatives since I think politics brings out the worst in people.”

That will be the outcome of the Israeli elections – a structure voted in by millions of (mostly) Jews, with divergent views hoping for a plethora of outcomes for Israel. Complex!  

Michael Diamond
Toronto consultant, entrepreneur, investor and philanthropist.  

UJA Federation’s shinshinim created an informative website about the Israeli election, www.voteisrael2015.com, that asks visitors to cast simulated ballots. Thusly encouraged, and unlike previous Israeli elections when I simply watched and squirmed, this year, I tried to behave like an Israeli and vote.

I decided to vote for Kulanu – a Likud-like party that is not Likud and includes former Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren on its list, as well as several others from different parts of Israeli society, many of whom have a focus on the economy and security. Kulanu, I believe, could form part of either a left- or right-oriented coalition.

But then I thought: who am I to suggest my vote ought to matter, given that I’m a Canadian who doesn’t have to run to air-raid shelters when missiles fly, pay high levels of taxes to support Israel’s military, or see my sons risk their lives in the IDF?

Those who are fully invested Israelis should know much better than I what must be done to enhance and protect their lives. After all, it is they who must deal with the outcomes. I can only watch, offer support and cheer from the sidelines. n

Bernie Farber
Former chief executive officer of Canadian Jewish Congress.

At the best of times, Israeli elections are fraught with complexities and a myriad of candidates and parties, so you often need a score card to know the players.

This time, Israelis are voting in what is ostensibly the most complicated and vital election in their country’s history. 

Iran, the economy, right-wing parties, left-wing parties, centre-left, centre-right, a national housing crisis – all will play a role in who comes out on top. But in Israeli politics, the party that wins the most seats doesn’t necessarily determine who will be prime minister.

Over the last year, it looked like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a lock on victory. However, recent events suggest it’s more of a horse race. 

Most parties have sophisticated internal polling procedures run by some of the best pollsters money can buy. For instance, as reported in the Israeli press, internal polling by all the key parties suggests Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid is set to gain the most. And a recent Panels poll, with an admittedly small sample, shows a trend away from Netanyahu: 60 per cent said they don’t want him as prime minister after the March 17 vote.

When the majority in poll after poll point to the economy as the key issue in this election, you know storm clouds are on the horizon for Likud. 

Rabbi Mark Fishman
Spiritual leader of Congregation Beth Tikvah ASNH in Montreal

Politics at its very core is a concession to weakness. We, the people, are not able to govern our own behaviours and so we choose to give away some of our power to others who will rule over us. We are thus admitting that the very basis for political power and authority is rooted in understanding that our freedom and our power are a zero-sum game. The more power we give away the less power we have. 

If Israeli society can come out of these elections with a renewed sense of energy and optimism, it could be because they will focus not on politics and power, but on another realm altogether – society as the arena of co-operation. 

Israelis today are in a position where civic society is in great need of help. Caring for ethnic minorities, championing the cause of the poor and continuing the journey to where those to my political right or my political left are not seen as the enemy, as the incomprehensible other. 

Instead, a post-election opportunity could be for Israelis to realize just how much room there is for co-operation and collaboration with each other. As we recently heard in Congress – We’re mishpachah.

Rabbi Baruch Frydman-Kohl
Spiritual leader of Beth Tzedec Congregation in Toronto

Although the Israeli election initially appeared to be a Seinfeld-Shakespeare collaboration with much ado about nothing, it quickly morphed into a referendum about Prime Minister  Benjamin Netanyahu. After almost 10 years in office, Netanyahu owns both the progress and the problems of the country. 

The spectacular growth of the high-tech  sector was unleashed by Netanyahu’s policies. So were the economic and social challenges of the many people left behind. The relative quiet in the Palestinian community as well as the inability to move from stasis to a viable two-state solution sit at his doorstep. The general security of Israel, along with the attacks from tunnels and missiles, were also attributed to him. International respect for Israel and popular alienation throughout Europe were placed on his shoulders. 

And there was Iran. The Speech became the focus of media attention. With one dramatic example of strength, Netanyahu shifted voter attention away from his weaknesses. Will it be enough?

After the vote, the “other campaign” will begin. Will the new president entrust Netanyahu with the responsibility of forming a government or will Reuven Rivlin turn to the Zionist Union and other parties? What will the enhanced status of the Arab political base mean? Will the new haredi parties push hard to repeal the law requiring yeshiva students to enter the military?  What will the new parties accept in order to enter the government? Stay tuned. n

Jean M. Gerber
Consultant in community planning and program assessment in Vancouver

Israel today is at a critical juncture. For Israel’s sake, I would hope a new government would undertake the following: an immediate stop to settlements in the occupied territories; a phased reduction in their financial support; a serious effort (without ineffectual U.S. hovering) to reach an agreement with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank; phased-out support for haredi yeshivas until they include full secular studies; increased support for the Tali school system; increased, not decreased, study of Jewish history and sources in the secular system.

Should a new government be formed with the same jumble of parties, each with its own demanding agenda, none of these changes will take place and the internal health of the nation will continue to decline, as the various sectors draw further into their own fiefdoms, suspicious and angry with each other.  

For the Diaspora, bewildered as to how to react, the outlook is bleak. The organized community will support whatever government is in power (warts and all) while a growing segment of Diaspora Jews will simply disengage from what they cannot understand, let alone support uncritically.

A politician tells you what you want to hear. A true friend tells you what you should hear. n

Rabbi Dow Marmur
Rabbi emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto

Rabbinic wisdom has it that after the last biblical prophets, the gift of prophecy was taken from sages and given to fools, as illustrated by the reflections below. 

Democracies benefit from a change of government, sometimes even when it’s not for the better. That’s one reason why I’d like to see Isaac Herzog-Tzipi Livni of the Zionist Camp in the saddle. An even more important reason is that they are more likely to address the burning issues of the day – not only Iran and defence. 

These include (a) the growing gap between rich and poor, reflected in the price of housing and caused in part by the obsession with settlement construction,  and (b) the lack of progress in peace-making with the Palestinians: it’s too convenient and grossly misleading only to blame the other side.

My fear, however, is that we’ll have an even more intransigent coalition that may include rabidly right-wing parties and thus endanger the future of Israel.

My compromise hope is a so-called national unity government, preferably with Herzog as prime minister and Netanyahu as minister of finance or minister of defence, but even with Netanyahu as prime minister, Livni as foreign minister and Herzog in finance or social welfare. 

Haredim walk past a large campaign poster in Jerusalem 
depicting Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni of the Zionist Camp.
YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90 PHOTO

Rabbi Howard Morrison
Spiritual leader of Beth Emeth Bais Yehuda Synagogue in Toronto

One of my favourite narratives from the Talmud explains a difference between the schools of Hillel and Shammai. While the school of Shammai would articulate its view clearly, the school of Hillel did something far different. It would first state the case made by the school of Shammai with accuracy and respect, then it would articulate its position. One of the reasons Jewish law follows Hillel in most of the famous Hillel-Shammai debates is due to the respect and care Hillel had for its rival.

Last week, I witnessed much discord over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the U.S. Congress. The discord was so loud, I was concerned about internal Jewish unity. Hillel’s articulation defines Jewish unity at its best. As one explores the ideologies of different parties in Israel, one can recognize the passion and commitment that each has for its people and its land.

After the election, world Jewry will need to support Israel’s democratically elected leadership. I hope and pray world Jewry will demonstrate the kind of unity taught to us by Hillel, that we are one people, regardless of our passionate disagreements.

While we may hold fast to our innermost beliefs and convictions, can we also articulate with respect and care the passionate view of someone with whom we disagree? 

Michael Taube
Political columnist and  former speechwriter for Prime Minister Stephen Harper

Making political predictions is a mug’s game. Then again, it’s never stopped me before!

Israel’s upcoming legislative election will be close. The historical trend of forming a coalition government in the Knesset will surely continue. 

It’s no secret who I want to win. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud are the most effective representatives of modern conservative ideas. They firmly support a free market economy and private enterprise. Meanwhile, their strong, no-nonsense position for Israel’s safety and security is exactly what’s needed.

Although Likud’s popularity numbers have fluctuated, and the left-leaning Zionist Union between Labor and Hatnua has gained traction, my sense is voters will maintain the status quo. Netanyahu will cobble together a working agreement with right-leaning religious parties, and remain in office.

The future Israeli government’s next steps will be replete with political landmines. Potential military threats from Iran and Syria are top of mind. Hezbollah and Hamas remain problematic. ISIS looms in the background. And, there’s that little issue with icy U.S.-Israel relations to deal with.

One thing is for sure. No matter who wins on March 17, it’ll be a thankless task. My hope is it stays within Netanyahu’s firm grip.   

Gil Troy
History professor at McGill University in Montreal

There are two different ways of framing the upcoming Israeli election. Many Israelis can’t live with him: they are fed up with Benjamin Netanyahu’s political game playing, his inaction domestically, his – and now Israel’s – disastrous standing internationally. Others can’t live without him, fearing a weak, temporizing Isaac Herzog who has promised to alternate with the broadly unpopular yet grudgingly respected Tzipi Livni. Israelis, then, will face the democratic dilemma of voting their hopes or voting their fears.

Israelis also will face the peculiar Israeli dilemma stemming from their complicated electoral system: do they vote for their favourite candidate or do they have some coalition-shaping strategy? The polls suggest that while the Herzog-Livni Zionist Camp has a good chance of winning more votes than Netanyahu’s Likud, the coalition math is sobering. As a result, an organization like V-15 just emphasizes the Anybody But Bibi push, while the new Kulanu party emphasizes its centring role regardless of who wins, pushing a Likud coalition left and a Herzog coalition right.

Ultimately, we can confidently predict two election-day outcomes. First, it will be peaceful, as all Israel’s democratic election days have been. And second, whoever wins, Israelis will worry, complain, grumble – yet survive. n

David J. Cape
Chair of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs 

As the advocacy agent of Canada’s Jewish federations, the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs’ (CIJA) mandate is to advance the policy interests of the affiliated Jewish community. We try to reflect the broadest community consensus and demonstrate a unity of purpose. Because we are non-partisan, we are not beholden to any political label, affiliation or ideology. Our operating ethos is “unity not uniformity,” and it is through this lens that we view the Israeli election.

We think it is neither helpful nor appropriate for CIJA to predict the shape of the next Knesset. As for the options facing voters, we express no preferences. We trust Israeli democracy to reflect the aspirations of its citizens as it has for more than six decades. 

The only hope we would articulate is for the next Knesset is to embody a maximum degree of unity and representation within Israeli politics, with every segment of Israeli society feeling that its voice is being heard and its needs are being addressed by the state. Given the extraordinary challenges facing Israelis – security threats, economic constraints, religious-secular reconciliation and accommodation, and issues of social justice, unity may be the best message Israeli voters can send to their leadership. n

Mira Sucharov
Associate professor of political science at Carleton University, Ottawa

With polls revealing a near dead heat between Likud and the Zionist Union, the devil will be in the coalition details. With a maximum of 24 seats projected for either slate, the winner will have to more than double its own weight with coalition partners. And this means that the Zionist Union will have to reach rightward. That, in turn, will lead the leaders-elect to have to select from potential coalition members who are hostile to one another. It also means a smaller likelihood for significant movement on the peace process. The Joint Arab List stands to gain electorally, but has stated its refusal to partner with a Zionist coalition government. All this points to the likelihood that the Likud will be asked to form the next government.

If elections indeed bring more of the same, those of us who were holding our breath hoping for movement toward peace will be forced to exhale into a continued status quo. While we might say that in democracies, the people get the government they deserve, we must not forget that the Palestinians under occupation shouldn’t be subject to any government of a country of which they are not citizens. n

Jay Kelman
Founder of Torah in Motion and a teacher at TanenbaumCHAT in  Toronto

The only think certain about an Israeli election is that there will be at least one major surprise. What is most needed is a strong government not beholden to the often narrow interests of parties that focus on only one or two issues. 

We need a government that with a full term will have the strength, wisdom and time to tackle the main social and economic issues facing Israel, such as the unaffordability of housing, the much-too-wide income gap between rich and poor, and the integration of haredim into the workplace (and maybe even the army). I would love to see the rhetoric toned down as people appreciate that most of those with opposing views have the best interests of the Jewish People at heart – even if they have a very different view of what those best interests are. Unfortunately, it appears that peace is as far away as possible and management, not solution, of the conflict is all we can hope for at present.  

Being that I’m writing this on Purim, let’s have some fun and predict the following seat count: Likud 26, Zionist Union 23, Bayit Yehudi 14, Yesh Atid 13, Joint Arab List 12, Kahalon 10, Shas 6, United Torah 7, Meretz 4. n

Rabbi N. Daniel Korobkin
Spiritual leader of Beth Avraham Yoseph of Toronto Congregation

Although current polls favour Benjamin Netanyahu to be prime minister again, the one thing you can be sure of in Israeli politics is that nothing is for sure. 

Bibi lost the prime ministership in 1999 (to Ehud Barak) largely for socioeconomic reasons in Israel, a factor with which Diaspora Jewry is unacquainted. Furthermore, it’s been suggested that Netanyahu lost because a strong U.S. president, Bill Clinton, wasn’t fond of his Israeli counterpart, and may have played a role in getting him ousted. 

Despite Netanyahu’s popularity with the U.S. Congress and much of the United States and Canada, it’s clear that U.S. President Barack Obama isn’t exactly enamoured with him, especially not after his speech to Congress. While a strong prime minister who is tough on security – especially Iran – and is a tough negotiator with the Palestinians is what Israel appears to need right now, the future for Israel’s leader is as obscure as ever.

Watching Netanyahu address Congress and invoke the story of Esther at the beginning of his speech and Moses’ parting words of “be strong and resolute” at the end filled me with great pride and emotion. I pray his words meet their mark. 

Michael Mostyn
CEO of B’nai Brith Canada

As Jews living in the Diaspora, Israeli politics are of great interest. While we’re fortunate to live in a country that has such strong political support for Israel, we nonetheless tend to find ourselves reflecting on the safety and security of our spiritual and ancestral homeland.

Canadian Jews want to see Iran prevented from acquiring weapons capability.

The regime in Tehran is virulently anti-Semitic and anti-Zionist and a serial violator of human rights – a government that should not be trusted with the bomb. Iran’s ongoing support for terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas and its expanding influence may also provide the next prime minister an opportunity to dialogue with neighbouring Arab states that share regional concerns. 

Additionally, Diaspora Jewry is troubled by the increased lawfare directed at the Jewish state as the Palestinian Authority is seeking to prosecute Israel at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and has ceased security co-operation with Israel.

We occasionally forget that to the average Israeli, these issues are sometimes secondary. Key domestic matters in this election have been affordable housing, the economy and government transparency.

While Israeli voters will cast their ballot for the party they feel best reflects their stand on major issues, we in the Diaspora would like to see the next government stand strong in the face of the major external challenges and security issues facing the country.